avoiding the death spiral part 2

avoiding the death spiral part 2

I mentioned on April 17th that Ford, Kvaerner, Honda, lots of companies could be making spacecraft. However, they are not. There's a good reason for that. There is only a tiny market for space launch, and these companies cannot bring assembly-line methods to bear on small markets.

For there to be a space launch market, there has to be a reason for people to want to go to space. Having a good reason to send cargo is nice, but the market for that is limited; once you start sending people up the cargo market becomes much more robust and follows naturally.

Presently people are discouraged by the cost; not everyone has $20 million dollars lying around and can also pass the required medical etc exams currently required of astronauts. This is often cited as a catch-22; can't send people up until costs come down, can't bring down costs without high flight rates, can't have high flight rates if people aren't buying seats.

It needn't be a catch-22 though. If people perceive the value of the experience as being more than the value of the cost of the experience, then they will pay. A few have already paid the aforementioned 20 mil, and it was worth it to them.

There are other ways of approaching the problem. One is to realize that to generate passenger flights, there must be a destination. The ISS simply doesn't cut it as a high-traffic destination in space: too small, microgravity experiments, in the wrong orbit.

What is needed as part of the infrastructure for a space-based economy is a structure like the one envisioned at Space Island Group. This is a wheel-shaped space station built out of expended space shuttle external tanks. The whole thing could be built with the discarded ETs of 16 shuttle launches, or by 8 shuttle-C or shuttle-Zs (which would take their external tanks to orbit). Now that's a destination: great view, exotic locale. Have fun at 1/3 gee in the main ring or play in weightlessness at the hub.

For a destination like that, one is looking at perhaps a few hundred people in space at one time. Those people are not going to get there three at a time on a Soyuz. Instead, they would be on the equivalent of a space bus, probably a few dozen arriving at a time.

All of a sudden, the cost to orbit per seat drops dramatically. It requires a heavy-lift launcher, but that will also be needed for a moon mission anyway.

So there is a consideration for NASA: instead of following the Mercury/Gemini/Apollo route (maybe they want four astronauts this time?) they should look at something that can launch 20, 30, fifty people at once.

There is a flip side to the catch-22: once there is a dramatic drop in price, the demand rises sharply, overshooting the supply. This is where Ford and Kvaerner and Honda come into play. It is when the demand rises sharply that it becomes profitable for these companies (and others like them) to do the minor retooling necessary to produce spacecraft. Give them the desired capabilities for the CEV and the booster and the specs for the interface between the two, show that the demand is rising sharply, and then stand back. Adopt a Wal-Mart strategy when it comes to your suppliers, always seeking lower costs. Give them your specifications, then give your business to whoever can deliver.

The wheel station I linked to above would not just be a tourist resort (although it could be that too). It (or others subsequent to the first) becomes a drydock/staging area/industrial facility. This is essential to the eventual Mars mission (which will surely be assembled and perhaps mostly built in orbit), as well as to gain experience in a number of other areas: how long can a human being live at 1/3 gee before suffering ill effects? how do we process raw ore in orbit? what construction techniques can we use in orbital facilities?

The orbiting stations would be true space stations, not microgravity research outposts like Mir or the ISS. It is the space stations and the ability to transport large numbrs of people to them that will open up space industry.

I think a space station like that will become a reality, but I don't see NASA doing it. Instead I think an entrepreneur like Bezos or Rutan or Branson will build it - maybe even Paris Hilton.